Forex milhões de dólares comerciante shareef

TOKIO (Reuters) - A economia japonesa expandiu-se muito mais rapidamente do que inicialmente esperado entre janeiro e março, à medida que as empresas aumentaram o investimento de capital, ressaltando que os bancos centrais consideram que a recuperação da recessão dos últimos anos está ganhando força. A economia cresceu 3,9 por cento anualizada nos primeiros três meses deste ano, segundo dados do Gabinete do Gabinete, na segunda-feira, superando uma estimativa preliminar de um ganho de 2,4 por cento, superando uma estimativa do mercado médio de 2,7 por cento de crescimento. Esta é uma figura bastante positiva e mostra a recuperação está pegando ritmo, disse Takeshi Minami, economista-chefe do Norinchukin Research Institute. Os não-fabricantes estão aumentando os gastos com as expectativas de que o consumo privado vai se recuperar, então isso deve servir como um fator chave de crescimento, disse ele. As despesas de capital aumentaram 2,7 por cento em relação ao trimestre anterior, muito mais do que uma estimativa preliminar de crescimento de 0,4 por cento e maior do que uma expansão de 2,3 por cento projetada em uma pesquisa da Reuters. Aproveitando-se de um iene fraco (JPY), vários fabricantes japoneses estão mudando a produção para o Japão da China e de outros países. Panasonic puxou para trás alguma produção de ar-condicionadores de quarto e Canon 7751.T repatriou alguma produção de copiadoras high-end. Analistas dizem que lucros recorde e um amplo dinheiro finalmente começaram a estimular empresas como a fabricante de robôs industriais Fanuc Corp para aumentar o investimento de capital. Os dados são boas notícias para o governo e para o Banco do Japão, que esperam que as expectativas de uma recuperação econômica estável estimularão as empresas e as famílias a impulsionar os gastos. Uma recuperação das despesas de capital é fundamental para o êxito das políticas de estímulo do primeiro ministro Shinzo Abes, que visam reduzir a estagnação da economia, mudando a percepção das empresas de que a deflação persistirá. A economia japonesa está retornando à órbita do crescimento, disse Yasuhisa Kawamura porta-voz de Abes a repórteres na margem de uma cimeira do grupo de sete líderes em domingo. A atualização refletiu uma pesquisa do Ministério das Finanças publicada na semana passada, que mostrou que as despesas de capital corporativo cresceram em janeiro-março no ritmo mais rápido em um ano. O inquérito MOF, que é utilizado para calcular os dados revisados ​​do PIB, revelou um aumento notável nos gastos com os não-fabricantes. A expansão rápida de negócios on-line e móveis está direcionando investimentos em redes de distribuição e inventário por varejistas e atacadistas, enquanto hotéis e parques temáticos estão renovando para atrair clientes, incluindo turistas estrangeiros atraídos por um iene fraco. Não-fabricantes também podem estar investindo mais em automação para atender a uma escassez de mão-de-obra, observou Norinchukins Minami. SINGAPURA (Reuters) - Os preços do petróleo caíram na segunda-feira, uma vez que as importações de petróleo da China caíram acentuadamente e esperava-se que os mercados fossem cada vez mais sobrecarregados após a decisão da OPEP de manter seus objetivos de produção Inalterado A China, o maior importador líquido de petróleo do mundo, comprou cerca de um quarto menos de petróleo em maio do que no mês anterior, segundo dados oficiais. Suas importações de derivados de petróleo também caíram pouco mais de seis por cento enquanto as exportações de produtos caíram 10 por cento. A queda das importações ocorreu depois que a Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) concordou nesta sexta-feira em aderir à sua política de alta produção, que supera os 30 milhões de barris por dia, exacerbando preocupações com um excesso de mercado em milhões de barris de petróleo. Bruto são armazenados sem um comprador. A demanda / oferta bruta continua acima dos suprimentos, disse Yasushi Kimura, presidente da Associação de Petróleo do Japão (PAJ) após a decisão da OPEP. Os futuros do Brent do mês anterior caíram 38 centavos para 62,93 o barril em 0602 GMT. O petróleo dos EUA estava em 58,69 por barril, abaixo de 44 centavos, e analistas disseram que os preços do petróleo provavelmente cairão mais. O mercado de petróleo ainda parece que está indo para o problema. Mesmo se o crescimento ano-a-ano do suprimento nos EUA desacelerar dramaticamente no segundo trimestre, com a OPEP a produzir 31 milhões de bpd, o superávit do mercado de petróleo, embora encolhendo no segundo semestre, deverá persistir durante todo o ano. Isso significa que os estoques globais de petróleo, que já estão em níveis recordes, continuarão a subir, resultando em mais pressão descendente sobre os preços e um provável re-alargamento do contango Brent8217s, como o mercado procura capacidade cada vez mais caro para armazenar o excesso de crude e produtos, Acrescentou. Os ministros da Opep disseram que o grupo pode até ultrapassar a meta de 30 milhões de bpd, especialmente se houver aumento da produção e das exportações da Líbia, do Iraque ou do Irã. Nós prevemos que a Arábia Saudita e outros produtores de baixo custo continuarão a aumentar a produção, como este é o próximo passo lógico para maximizar as receitas em face da escalabilidade óleos de xisto, disse Goldman Sachs, acrescentando que o mercado global de petróleo permaneceria superabastecido em 2016. Adicionando Para o excesso, os analistas também esperam que a perfuração dos EUA comece a aumentar novamente no segundo semestre deste ano após 26 semanas de quedas. A perfuração caiu depois que os preços do petróleo caíram para mínimos de seis anos em janeiro, mas uma recuperação modesta e custos operacionais reduzidos estão permitindo que os perfuradores norte-americanos operem a custos que anteriormente não seriam viáveis. SINGAPORE (Reuters) - O ouro marcou na segunda-feira depois de uma corrida de três dias perdendo, mas ainda estava pairando perto de um mínimo de 11 semanas como um forte O relatório dos empregos dos EU impulsionou expectativas de um aumento da taxa de interesse de ESTADOS UNIDOS em setembro. O ouro do ponto subiu 0.1 por cento a 1.172.86 uma onça por 0647 GMT. O metal caiu para 1.162,35 na sexta-feira, seu menor desde 19 de março, após dados mostraram que o crescimento do emprego nos EUA acelerou acentuadamente em maio e os salários aumentaram. Nonfarm folha de pagamento aumentou 280.000 no mês passado, o maior ganho desde dezembro. O relatório, indicando sinais de forte impulso na economia dos EUA, reforçou as expectativas de que o Federal Reserve começará a aumentar as taxas em setembro e enviou o dólar para um pico de 13 anos contra o iene. Os técnicos dos mercados deterioraram-se a tal ponto que agora provavelmente levarão os preciosos preços mais baixos, já que o tema de um dólar mais forte eo iminente aumento das taxas dos EUA novamente dominam o sentimento, disse Edward Meir, analista da INTL FCStone. Taxas mais altas dos EUA podem diminuir a demanda por lingotes que não pagam juros, enquanto um dólar mais forte torna o ouro mais caro para os detentores de outras moedas e reduz o apelo dos metais seguros. O posicionamento dos investidores em barras de ouro continuou a refletir o sentimento de baixa. Outras saídas foram encontradas no SPDR Gold Trust, o maior fundo mundial negociado em bolsa de ouro, com papéis que caíram 0,17% para 708,70 toneladas na sexta-feira, o menor desde meados de janeiro. Os fundos de hedge e os gerentes de dinheiro cortaram posições longas líquidas no ouro e na prata na semana terminada junho 2, dados de Commodity Futures Trading Commission dos EU mostrados em sexta-feira. Ouro ETF explorações estão perto de suas baixas de 2015 e parecem estar contribuindo para golds declínio gradual desde meados de maio, disse o comerciante do Grupo MKS James Gardiner. Maiores rendimentos de títulos e dólar mais forte também continuam a pressionar o metal. Os rendimentos do Tesouro norte-americano de referência a 10 anos registaram o seu salto semanal mais acentuado em quase dois anos na sexta-feira após o relatório de empregos. O próximo grande nível de apoio para o ouro está em torno da baixa de março de 1.142, embora haja também sinais de forte apoio nos anos 60 de meados a baixos, disse ele. Em notícias de mineração, a Associação Sul-Africana de Trabalhadores de Mineiros e União de Construção disse no domingo que lançaria uma greve selvagem se sua união rival e empresas de mineração de ouro impuserem um acordo salarial aos seus membros. As greves poderiam potencialmente baixar os níveis de produção e dar apoio aos preços. As ações japonesas prolongaram as perdas quarta-feira depois de encerrar um rally de 12 dias na sessão anterior, enquanto o euro subiu após os dados da inflação da zona do euro otimista como os comerciantes pista Greeces conversas da reforma da dívida à frente de Um prazo de reembolso. Tóquio recuou 0,42 por cento na manhã, Sydney perdeu 0,52 por cento e Xangai diminuiu 0,10 por cento, mas Hong Kong adicionou 0,91 por cento e Seul foi 0,29 por cento maior. Os negociantes se mudaram para fora das ações japonesas por um segundo dia depois que o Nikkei marcou um rali impressionante não visto desde 1988, no auge da bolha do mercado de ações do país. A venda foi alimentada por uma recuperação do iene, que na terça-feira atingiu seu nível mais fraco em relação ao dólar em mais de 12 anos. O dólar caiu com ações norte-americanas na quarta-feira devido a preocupações sobre a falta de progresso nas conversações da Greeces com seus credores sobre a revisão de seus termos de resgate. O Dow Jones perdeu 0,16 por cento, o SampP 500 caiu 0,10 por cento eo Nasdaq derramou 0,13 por cento. Nos mercados de moeda corrente o dólar estava em 123.93 iene cedo quarta-feira contra 124.09 em New York. O dólar tocou brevemente 125,05 ienes na Ásia terça-feira. O euro comprou 1,1168 e 138,43 ienes de 1,1152 e 138,39 ienes no comércio americano. Com um prazo para a Grécia reembolsar parte de sua dívida na sexta-feira, os líderes do país e seus credores trocaram propostas de reforma, embora ainda haja receios de que um acordo não possa ser alcançado. Os investidores ficaram assustados na terça-feira, quando Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chefe do Eurogrupo dos ministros das Finanças, disse que não estava impressionado com o progresso. O primeiro-ministro grego, Alexis Tsipras, se prepara para reunir-se com o presidente da Comissão Europeia, Jean-Claude Juncker, em Bruxelas, na quarta-feira à noite. Há preocupações de que, se a Grécia não pagar suas dívidas, o país poderá acabar caindo da zona do euro. O euro claramente tem a capacidade de levar o dólar mais alto ou mais baixo em toda a diretoria e realmente essa vulnerabilidade decorre de resultados muito diferentes que você obtém das negociações entre a Grécia e seus credores, Raiko Shareef, estrategista de mercados do Bank of New Zealand, Disse à Bloomberg News. A moeda única também foi impulsionada por dados que mostram que a inflação da zona do euro subiu para 0.3 por cento em maio - o primeiro aumento em cinco meses e aumentando as esperanças da região está se recuperando -, enquanto a Alemanha ea Espanha publicaram relatórios sólidos de trabalho. Os resultados vieram antes da reunião de quarta-feira do banco central europeu e de uma conferência de imprensa subseqüente com o chefe Mario Draghi do ECB. Os preços do petróleo caíram após fortes ganhos na terça-feira, impulsionados pelo dólar mais fraco. O índice americano West Texas Intermediate para entrega em julho caiu 36 centavos para 60,90, enquanto o Brent para julho cedeu 32 centavos para 65,17. O ouro chegou a 1.194,06 comparado com 1,190,90 na terça-feira. Ltscriptgt (função (i, s, o, g, r, a, m) (ir. qir. q).push (argumentos), ir. l1new Date () as. createElement (o), ms. getElementsByTagName (o) 0a. async1a. srcgm. parentNode. insertBefore (a, m)) (janela, documento, script, // google-analytics / analytics. js, ga) ga (criar, UA-63733950-1, Feira, 7 de janeiro de 2015 - 07h51 EST Sendo mais bearish sobre o euro do que o consenso ajudou ING Groep NV tornar-se o worldx2019s mais precisos forecaster moeda Em 2014. O banco holandês não vê razão para mudar sua estratégia agora, saindo do pacote para prever uma queda para a paridade com o dólar dentro de dois anos. Depois de assistir a queda de moeda de 19 nação tão baixa quanto 1,1754 hoje a partir do último ano x2019s alta de 1,3993 em maio, ING vê-lo continuar a enfraquecer todo o caminho para 1, um nível visto pela última vez em 2002. A estimativa média de mais de 30 previsionistas em Uma pesquisa da Bloomberg é de 1,15 até o final de 2016. ING espera que as medidas do Banco Central Europeu para impulsionar a economia do zonex2019s zona do euro e evitar a deflação terá consequências mais desagradáveis ​​para a moeda do que a maioria das outras empresas. Poucos investidores vão querer o euro como decisores políticos expandir a oferta de dinheiro, especialmente porque o Federal Reserve torna os ativos dólar mais atraente, aumentando as taxas de juros. X201C Somos uma das casas mais rebaixadas do euro-dólar, x201D Petr Krpata, estrategista de câmbio da ING em Londres, disse ontem por telefone. X201CIt parece como se o Fed vai começar as taxas de caminhada mais cedo ou mais tarde, potencialmente até mesmo no final do segundo trimestre, e isso irá alimentar ainda mais a divergência em policy. x201D Nível de estréia ING superou Bloombergx2019s rankings de analistas de câmbio para os quatro trimestres encerrados 31 de dezembro, saindo do segundo lugar anteriormente e suplantando o emprestador alemão Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg no slot No. 1. Em uma de suas melhores chamadas, a ING previu no início de 2014 que o euro cairia 13 por cento para 1,20 até 31 de dezembro, em comparação com uma estimativa mediana em um levantamento da Bloomberg de 1,28 na época. Terminou o ano em 1.2098. O euro negociava a 1,1815 às 12h35 em Nova York, à vista do nível de abertura de 1,1736 em 1 de janeiro de 1999, quando a moeda única foi introduzida, de acordo com dados compilados pela Bloomberg. Os estrategistas receberam uma nova razão para serem onerosos na moeda ontem, quando os dados mostraram que os preços ao consumidor na região do euro caíram 0,2% em dezembro em relação ao ano anterior, a primeira queda anual em cinco anos. Isso aumentou a pressão sobre o presidente do BCE Mario Draghi para começar a comprar títulos soberanos como parte de uma estratégia para injetar dinheiro na economia e depreciar o euro. Krpata, que ajuda a compilar as previsões do INGx2019s, com sede em Amsterdã, juntamente com o chefe da estratégia cambial Chris Turner, espera que o BCE anuncie o chamado alívio quantitativo na sua primeira reunião de políticas este ano, dia 22 de janeiro. Apenas disse que eles estão considerando QE. Ao mesmo tempo, existe uma probabilidade de 58 por cento de os EUA aumentarem sua taxa de fundos federais de uma faixa de zero a 0,25% para pelo menos 0,5% em setembro, segundo dados de futuros compilados pela Bloomberg. Minutos da reunião de dezembro de Fedx2019s publicada ontem mostraram a maioria de oficiais concordam que o banco central é improvável aumentar taxas antes de atrasado-abril. Os melhores meteorologistas no ranking da Bloombergx2019 foram identificados pela média das pontuações individuais em margem de erro, timing e precisão direcional em 13 pares de moedas nos últimos quatro trimestres. Os bancos tiveram que ser classificados em pelo menos oito dos pares para se qualificar para a colocação global, com 59 sucedendo. INGx2019s pontuação de 63,72 compara com No. 2 Credit Suisse Group AGx2019s 59,24 e terceiro colocado National Australia Bank em 58,82. Dólar tema x201CThe tema ainda é força do dólar, x201D Shahab Jalinoos, o chefe global da estratégia de câmbio no Credit Suisse em Nova York, disse por telefone em 05 de janeiro. X201C Fed deve começar a aumentar as taxas de junho, que é anterior a whatx2019s No mercado e outros três aumentos nas próximas quatro reuniões depois disso. x201D Credit Suisse estima que o euro cairá para 1,15 no final de 2015 antes de negociar em 1,19 um ano depois. A apreciação do dólar é a pedra angular do nosso grupo de 10 pontos de vista de FX, x201D Raiko Shareef, um estrategista em Wellington no Bank of New Zealand Ltd. uma unidade da NAB, disse ontem por telefone. O dólar do euro e da Nova Zelândia são as duas moedas que sofrerão o maior contra o dólar este ano, disse ele. INGx2019s previsão da paridade euro-dólar continua a ser uma visão minoritária. ABN Amro Bank NV e Citigroup Inc., o maior trader de câmbio do mundo, são os únicos bancos na pesquisa Bloombergx2019s que concordam que a taxa de câmbio cairá tão baixo até o final de 2016. Os preços das opções sugerem que há apenas 18% Enfraquecer ao alvo INGx2019s. INGx2019s top pick é comprar o dólar contra Swedenx2019s krona. A moeda escandinava registrou o segundo pior desempenho em uma cesta de 10 países desenvolvidos durante os últimos 12 meses, caindo 9,1%, de acordo com os Índices de Correlação Ponderados da Bloomberg. A Suéciax2019s Riksbank prometeu em dezembro fazer o que x2019s precisasse para sacudir a maior economia nórdica de uma espiral deflacionária. Como as autoridades têm pouca margem de manobra em relação às tarifas, provavelmente colocarão uma barreira no valor do kronax2019s, disse Krpata. X201Os mecanismos monetários monetários estão esgotados, x201D ele disse. X201C A coroa sueca será ainda mais fraca do que o euro. x201D Antes de sua aqui, o seu no Bloomberg Terminal. Nachrichten Crude sobe em menor ganho em estoques em API Publicado em: 2014-10-29 09:23:00 Mercado: Stocks, petróleo Amp Metals Crude Oil em ambos os lados do Atlântico, está negociando mais alto hoje após os dados do Instituto Americano de Petróleo mostrou uma compilação mais lenta de inventários ontem. FXStreet (Mumbai) - O petróleo bruto nos dois lados do Atlântico, está negociando mais altamente hoje em dia após os dados americanos do instituto do petróleo mostraram uma acumulação mais lenta dos inventários ontem. O WTI Crude está negociando 0.49 mais alto em USD 81.92 / barrel, quando o Brent Crude negociar 0.46 mais altamente em USD 86.47 / barrel. Os preços obtidos após o American Petroleum Institute mostraram uma construção de 3,2 milhões de barris em suprimentos de petróleo. No entanto, os ganhos foram limitados pelos alvos de preços de baixa dos grandes bancos de investimento juntamente com as preocupações de oferta em curso. Além disso, os preços subiram mais rápido do que os dados da Agência de Informação Energética (EIA), que provavelmente mostrará que os estoques provavelmente caíram de 900 mil barris para 203,5 milhões na semana passada. Brent Níveis técnicos Brent tem um apoio imediato em 87,19, acima do qual os preços podem subir para 88,00 níveis. Por outro lado. Os preços podem diminuir para 85,50 níveis se o apoio imediato de 86,00 é retirado. Todos os olhos na reunião do Fed hoje à noite - Danske Publicado em: 2014-10-29 09:18:00 Mercado: Forex Flash A equipe de analistas do Danske espera que o Fed finalize QE3 na reunião de política monetária mais tarde hoje. Full Content FXStreet (d) - A equipe de analistas do Danske espera que o Fed finalize o QE3 na reunião de política monetária mais tarde. Citações fundamentais Tendo em conta a recente turbulência do mercado, o Fed deverá reiterar a considerável orientação para o futuro e a significativa descrição da subutilização do mercado de trabalho. Esperamos que o Fed final de compras de ativos como tem sido sinalizado por vários membros recentemente e só vemos 30-40 probabilidade de o Fed mencionando a possibilidade de QE4. Mudamos a previsão do primeiro aumento do Fed de abril a junho do próximo ano devido à menor perspectiva de inflação e crescimento mais lento fora dos EUA. USD / JPY um passo mais perto de quebrar abaixo de 108.00 Publicado: 2014-10-29 09:18:00 Mercado: Câmbio USD / JPY aproximou-se de 108,00 lidar no início da Ásia atualmente, a sua negociação em 108,02. Full Content FXStreet (Moscou) - USD / JPY aproximou-se de 108.00 lidar no início da Ásia atualmente, a sua negociação em 108,02. O par está começando nervoso a cada hora de vinda, porque o mercado está esperando a posição mais menos agressiva do FOMC hoje à noite. Os dados divulgados ontem mais fracos do que os esperados dos EUA apenas confirmaram a recuperação instável da economia dos EUA e fortaleceram o argumento para a posição neutra do Fed. As autoridades monetárias provavelmente anunciarão o fim do programa QE, mas dada a fraqueza da Europa e da Ásia, pode preferir não se apressar com a primeira alta de preços. Para o par pode significar mais downside potencial com alvo inicial em 107,83 apoio, seguido por 107,51. Quais são os níveis atuais de USD / JPY O ponto de pivô central de hoje pode ser encontrado em 108,02 níveis de suporte inicial em 107,83, 107,51 e 107,32 com resistência acima em 108,234, 108,53 e 108,85. As Médias Móveis por Hora são otimistas, com a subida de 200SMA em 107,34 eo diário de 20EMA em alta de 107,60. O RSI horário é otimista com 55. Estudos Técnicos: Atualizado em - 2014-10-29 09:15:00 ABERTO 108,04 FECHAR 108,06 ALTO 108,08 BAIXO 108,04 BID 108,05 PERGUNTAR 108,06 PERCENT -0,01 Pontos Pivot S1 0 Pontos Pivot S2 0 Pontos Pivot S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pontos Pivot R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recomendação Bearish Strength -3 OBO Recomendação Neutral EUR / GBP capsulado em torno de 0.7900 Mercado: Divisas A estreita gama prevalece em EUR / GBP na quarta-feira, enquanto os participantes do mercado esperam pela série de lançamentos de dados no Reino Unido antes da reunião do FOMC mais tarde, hoje. FXStreet (Edimburgo) - A estreita faixa prevalece em EUR / GBP na quarta-feira, enquanto os participantes do mercado aguardam a série de lançamentos de dados no Reino Unido antes da reunião do FOMC mais tarde, hoje. EUR / GBP foco em dados do Reino Unido A cruz mantém o patamar consolidativo entre 0,7860 e 0,7900 na primeira metade da semana, olhando para estabilizar após a retração de picos de outubro perto de 0,8050. À frente no dia, a lista do Reino Unido traz o potencial para desencadear alguns movimentos, como Crédito ao Consumidor (0,8 bilhões de exp.), M4 Money Supply (0,5 MoM exp.), Mortgage Approvals (62,250K exp.) E Net Lending to Individuals Bilhões exp.) São devidos mais tarde. Nada de notável do lado do euro da equação, com o flash crítico CPI na área do euro fora na sexta-feira. Dmytro Bondar, Analista Técnico da RBS, observou: "Por agora é provável que permaneçam em um canal, com um possível declive para o nível de suporte de 0.7800, mas o restante geral permanece posicionado para mais subidas em meio à semana no início de outubro e clara divergência de alta Com MACD. EUR / GBP níveis a considerar Como de escrever a cruz é plana em 0.7894 com a próxima resistência em 0.7901 (alta Oct.28) à frente de 0.7917 (alta Oct.23) e, em seguida, 0.7926 (alta Oct.22). Por outro lado, uma desagregação de 0.7864 (baixa Oct.27) iria expor 0.7851 (baixa Oct.10) e finalmente 0.7833 (76.4 de 0.7767-0.8046). Estudos Técnicos: Atualizado At - 2014-10-29 09:15:00 ABRIR 0.7895 FECHAR 0.7894 ALTO 0.7897 BAIXO 0.7893 BID 0.7894 PERGUNTAR 0.7895 PERCENT 0.0127 Pontos Pivot S1 0 Pontos Pivot S2 0 Pontos Pivot S3 0 Pontos Pivot R1 0 Pontos Pivot R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recomendação Bullish Força 3 OBO Recomendação Neutral EUR / USD negociação em torno de 1.2735 níveis - FXStreet Publicado em: 2014-10-29 09:13:00 Mercado: Forex Flash FXStreet Editor e Analista Omkar Godbole salienta que EUR / USD é Negociando perto da área 1.2735 em quarta-feira, com o diário RSI bearish em 48.51. Conteúdo completo FXStreet (d) - O editor e analista da FXStreet Omkar Godbole destaca que o EUR / USD está negociando perto da área de 1.2735 na quarta-feira, com o RSI diário em 48.51. Nas paradas horárias, o par está lutando para subir acima dos 1.2740 níveis de hoje, enquanto o RSI está avançando mais baixo para 50.00 níveis. Além disso, o par não conseguiu sustentar ganhos acima de 1.2740 níveis ontem. Curiosamente, o nível 1.2740-1.2730 é também o decote da formação top triplo testemunhado na última semana sobre as cartas por hora. Assim, uma nova demanda para os euros pode ser antecipada se o par consegue manter acima de 1.2740 níveis. Entretanto, o par é mais provável testar níveis 1.2690-1.2680 durante a sessão européia dado o RSI diário bearish e a falha de se levantar acima de 1.2740 níveis. Karen Jones, analista do Commerzbank aponta que a tendência de baixa da GBP / USD reverteu na quarta-feira, mas o par é incapaz de avançar O nível de resistência 1.6185. Karen Jones, analista do Commerzbank aponta que a tendência de baixa da GBP / USD reverteu na quarta-feira, mas o par não conseguiu superar o nível de resistência de 1.6185. Citações chaves Os riscos aumentaram que este é um teste padrão inverso da cabeça e dos ombros. Um fechamento acima 1.6185 no entanto é necessário para confirmar e introduzir escopo para o retracement 1.6376 / 38.2. Espanha Vendas de Varejo (YoY) acima das previsões (0.6) em setembro: Real (1.1) Publicado em: 2014-10-29 09:02:00 Mercado: Indicadores Copper fortalece como greves podem reduzir Surplus Publicado em: 2014-10-29 08 : 47: 00 Mercado: Stocks, Oil met Metais Os preços do cobre estão negociando mais alto devido às greves no projeto Grasberg na Indonésia, juntamente com uma greve iniciada no dia 10 de novembro na mina Antamina no Peru. Os preços do cobre estão negociando mais alto devido às greves no projeto de Grasberg em Indonésia, acoplado com uma batida ajustada para começar o 10 de novembro na mina de Antamina em Peru. O Comex Copper, na New York Mercantile Exchange, está negociando perto dos máximos de duas semanas em US $ 3.092 / libra níveis. Além disso, as estimativas sugerem que estas duas interrupções de trabalho poderiam remover 84.000 toneladas de cobre minado abastecimento até o final de 2014. Além disso, a previsão média de cobre no início de 2014 foi um excedente de 600.000 toneladas. No entanto, pode cair para 70.000 toneladas ou um défice, dependendo da longevidade das duas greves. Comex Copper Níveis técnicos O cobre tem uma resistência imediata em 3,104 (alta de 14 de outubro), acima do qual os preços podem subir para 3,12 níveis. Por outro lado, uma falha em subir acima de 3.104 níveis pode enviar os preços para 3.074 níveis. França Confiança do Consumidor registrada em 85, abaixo das expectativas (86) em outubro Publicado em: 2014-10-29 08:45:00 Mercado: Indicadores Full Content GBP / USD o 4º ataque em 1.62 Publicado em: 2014-10-29 08: 40:00 Mercado: Câmbio GBP / USD abriu em 1.6131, e movido timidamente para 1.6152 no início da Europa atualmente, sua negociação em 1.6144. Full Content FXStreet (Moscou) - GBP / USD abriu em 1.6131, e movido timidamente para 1.6152 no início da Europa atualmente, sua negociação em 1.6144. Ontem, a libra fez a terceira tentativa em uma linha durante o último mês para quebrar acima da área da resistência de 1.6180 / 1.62. Embora o movimento hasnt conseguiu ainda, nada é perdido para o par, como a reunião FOMC pode desencadear uma volatilidade acentuada no mercado. Se o BOE se tornar o líder da corrida de hike taxa novamente, a libra pode ter todas as chances de quebrar acima da área mencionada, e para atualizar máximos mensais. O alvo inicial acima de 1,62 pode ser encontrado a uma resistência de 1,6230. Quais são os níveis atuais de GBP / USD? O ponto de pivô central de hoje pode ser encontrado em 1.6134, com suporte abaixo em 1.6085, seguido por 1.6038 e 1.5989 com resistência acima em 1.6181, seguido por 1.6230 e 1.6277. As Médias Móveis por Hora são de alta, com o 200SMA em 1.6098 eo diário 20EMA no 1.6121. O RSI horário é de alta em 53. Estudos Técnicos: Atualizado em - 2014-10-29 08:30:00 ABRIR 1.6151 FECHAR 1.6146 ALTO 1.6155 BAIXO 1.6145 BID 1.6146 PERGUNTAR 1.6147 PERCENT 0.031 Pontos de Pivô S1 0 Pontos de Pivô S2 0 Pontos de Pivô S3 0 Pivô Pontos R1 0 Pontos de Pivô R2 0 Pontos de Pivô R3 0 Recomendação Bullish Força 3 OBO Recomendação Neutro Ouro negocia plana antes da reunião do Fed Publicado em: 2014-10-29 08:28:00 Mercado: Stocks, Petróleo Amp Metals Os preços do ouro estão negociando Em uma escala estreita como os investors preferem permanecer na margem antes da decisão de taxa de juro do Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) todo-importante. FXStreet (Mumbai) - Os preços do ouro estão negociando em uma escala estreita como os investors preferem permanecer na margem antes da decisão de taxa de interesse do Federal Reserve (Fed) a mais importante. O metal amarelo está negociando 0.04higher em USD 1229.90 / Oz, stuck na maior parte em uma escala de 1227-1230 desde a sessão asiática. Além disso, os rendimentos do Tesouro nos Estados Unidos eo Índice do Dólar Americano estão mortos, não fornecendo pistas inter-mercado aos preços do Ouro. Além disso, os ganhos no metal foram tampados pelas ações asiáticas que estão negociando em uma elevação de um mês hoje. O MSCI Ásia-Pacífico índice ex-Japão ganhou 1, enquanto o Nikkei ganhou 1,5. Enquanto isso, as ações dos EUA ganharam mais de 1 ontem enquanto as ações européias devem seguir o exemplo. Ouro Níveis técnicos O ouro tem um apoio imediato em 1225, sob o qual os preços podem cair para 1217 níveis. Por outro lado, a resistência é vista em 1235 e 1240 níveis. Forex Flash EUR / USD permanece praticamente inalterado na quarta-feira, pairando sobre a área de 1.2740 à frente da reunião do FOMC, devido em novembro. A noite européia. FXStreet (Edimburgo) - EUR / USD permanece praticamente inalterado na quarta-feira, pairando sobre a área de 1.2740 antes da reunião do FOMC, prevista para a noite européia. Nós ainda esperamos que o recorde recente em 1,2885 seja protegido e consideraríamos vender os rallies em EUR / USD. Em um horizonte de 3 a 6M, esperamos que o desempenho relativo do crescimento e as perspectivas de política monetária relativa preparem o caminho para outro movimento menor em EUR / USD. Apontamos 1,22 em 3M e 1,20 em 6M, observa Anders Fischer, analista do Danske Bank. Além disso, Karen Jones, Chefe de Análise Técnica da FICC no Commerzbank, sugeriu que o par está oferecendo em sua escala, mas não superou qualquer resistência de nota, temos uma tendência de queda de curto prazo em 1.2768 hoje e enquanto capped aqui há um viés de desvantagem, Entretanto o gráfico intraday é mais positivo. EUR / JPY recua de alta asiática em 137.80 Mercado: Câmbio EUR / JPY está sendo negociada em 137.60 depois de ter aberto em 137.69 e se deslocou dentro de um intervalo estreito limitado por 137.80 no lado positivo E 137,64 no lado negativo. FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR / JPY está sendo negociada em 137.60 depois de ter aberto em 137.69 e se moveu dentro de uma estreita faixa limitada por 137.80 no lado positivo e 137.64 no lado negativo. EUR / JPY fez um bom progresso na terça-feira, apoiado pela força EUR e debilidade JPY. A cruz correu acima de 137.00 pivô e tocou o intradiário alto em 137.79 antes de se estabelecer para baixo em 137.69. Hoje, os movimentos transversais serão moldados pela reação do mercado à reunião do FOMC. Os sentimentos do mercado são inclinados para um resultado mais dovish, assim a surpresa hawkish inesperada pôde fazer um stir. Do ponto de vista técnico manter um olho em 137.80, pois é o nível de resistência mais próximo seguido de 138,00. O suporte é visto em 137,50. Quais são os atuais níveis de EUR / JPY Hoje, o ponto central de pivô pode ser encontrado em 137.48, com suporte abaixo em 137.13, 136.53 e 136.18, com resistência acima de 138.08, 138.43 e 139.03. As médias móveis de hora em hora são misturadas com o 200SMA bullish em 136.57 eo diário 20EMA liso em 136.96. O RSI horário é otimista em 66. Estudos Técnicos: Atualizado em - 2014-10-29 07:45:00 ABRIR 137.65 FECHAR 137.61 ALTO 137.68 BAIXO 137.6 BID 137.56 PERGUNTAR 137.66 PERCENT 0.03 Pontos Pivot S1 0 Pontos Pivot S2 0 Pontos Pivot S3 0 Pivot Pontos R1 0 Pontos de Pivô R2 0 Pontos de Pivô R3 0 Recomendação Força de Baixo -2 Recomendação de OBO Neutro EUR / USD nervoso à frente do FOMC Publicado em: 2014-10-29 07:34:00 Mercado: O câmbio EUR / USD é praticamente imobilizado durante Moderada sessão asiática na quarta-feira O par está sentado em seu nível de abertura de 1.2734 depois de ter se mudado no intervalo de 12 pips. FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR / USD está praticamente imobilizado durante a sessão asiática moderada na quarta-feira O par está sentado em seu nível de abertura de 1.2734 depois de ter se mudado no intervalo de 12 pips. EUR / USD terminou o terceiro dia positivo consecutivo na terça-feira. O upside foi causado pela fraqueza dos USD provocada por ordens inesperada mais fracas dos bens duráveis. European calendar seems to be empty, so now the market focus shift onto the FOMC meeting. The FED is widely expected to wrap-up its asset buying program, known as QE3, but investors are more interested in rate hike prospects. If the FEDs officials continue to stress that there is no hurry to tighten policy and rates are going to remain low for a considerable time, USD might weaken across the board. EUR/USD may break above 1.2800 and touch 1.2840. The support comes at 1.2720 and 1.2700. What are todays key EUR/USD levels Todays central pivot point can be found at 1.2727, with support below at 1.2691, 1.2648 and 1.2610, with resistance above at 1.2772, 1.2810 and 1.2853. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA bullish at 1.2722 and the daily 20EMA flat at 1.2729. Hourly RSI is bullish at 57. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 07:30:00 OPEN 1.2745 CLOSE 1.2743 HIGH 1.2747 LOW 1.2743 BID 1.2743 ASK 1.2744 PERCENT 0.0157 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bearish Strength -2 OBO Recommendation Neutral South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) climbed from previous 6.41 to 7.85 in September Published On :2014-10-29 07:00:00 Market :Indicators AUD/USD is climbing higher. The pair touched the Asian high at 0.8868 after having started the day at 0.8851. Full Content FXStreet (Moscow) - AUD/USD is climbing higher. The pair touched the Asian high at 0.8868 after having started the day at 0.8851. Australias calendar remains empty. It means that investors would have to spend the day waiting for FOMC meeting. Obviously this event is the biggest card on financial markets dancing card this week. The tone of the statement will shape USD near-term dynamics and influence AUD/USD movements. The pair is growing within a wide range, though strong offers spotted at 0.8900 may cap the upside at least until FOMC meeting results. On the downside keep an eye at 0.8825/20 with medium demand on approach. What are todays key AUD/USD levels Todays central pivot point can be found at 0.8845, with support below at 0.8806, 0.8756 and 0.8717, with resistance above at 0.8895, 0.8934 and 0.8984. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bullish at 0.8791 and the daily 20EMA flat at 0.8808. Hourly RSI is bullish at 65. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 06:45:00 OPEN 0.8866 CLOSE 0.8864 HIGH 0.8868 LOW 0.8863 BID 0.8862 ASK 0.8868 PERCENT 0.0226 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Overbought USD/JPY frozen above 108.00 ahead of FOMC Published On :2014-10-29 06:17:00 Market :Foreign Exchange USD/JPY is trading marginally above its Asian opening level at 108.12 after having moved within a narrow range limited by 108.23 on the upside and 108.07 on the downside. Full Content FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY is trading marginally above its Asian opening level at 108.12 after having moved within a narrow range limited by 108.23 on the upside and 108.07 on the downside. USD/JPY gained ground on Tuesday despite USD weakness agains most majors. The American currency held well against JPY due to better risk sentiments caused by positive US corporate earnings reports and, bullish stock markets momentum. Speculations that the Bank of Japan is going to revise down its economic forecasts on Friday added to JPYs woes. USD/JPY closed above 108.00 on daily basis, which improved its short-term technical picture. The nearest resistance comes at 108.40 with strong offers on approach. The support comes at 108.00. What are todays key USD/JPY levels Todays central pivot point can be found at 108.02 initial support levels at 107.83, 107.51 and 107.32 with resistance above at 108.234, 108.53 and 108.85. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA bullish at 107.34 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 107.60. Hourly RSI is bullish at 55. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 06:15:00 OPEN 108.14 CLOSE 108.13 HIGH 108.15 LOW 108.13 BID 108.13 ASK 108.14 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral Asia Recap: Consolidation in G10 FX ahead of FOMC Published On :2014-10-29 06:01:00 Market :Foreign Exchange A slow Asian session, with all G10 currencies in consolidation ahead of the FOMC, which will probably define the next near term trend for the USD. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - A slow Asian session, with all G10 currencies in consolidation ahead of the FOMC outcome later today, which will probably define the next near term trend for the USD. AUD/USD kept the bullish tone, trading slowly higher, currently at 0.8866, and heading towards recent highs at 0.8881. NZD/USD was firmer at 0.7930 with sellers tipped at 0.7950/55, Tuesdays high. USD/JPY consolidated a few pips above 108.00. EUR/USD saw trading developing in a tight 1.2730-40 range. GBP/USD was capped a few pips below 1.6150. On the fundamental front, Japans preliminary Industrial Production for September came at 2.7 MoM VS 2.2 exp. In New Zealand, ANZ Business Confidence for October was lifted to 26.5 vs 13.4 prior (mainly on political uncertainty). Lastly, MNI/Wespac China consumer sentiment in October stood at 110.9 vs. 113.2 prior. NZD/USD sidelined, waiting for FOMC and RBNZ Published On :2014-10-29 05:43:00 Market :Foreign Exchange NZD/USD is squeezed in a narrow 26-pip range limited by 0.7933 on the upside and 0.7909 on the downside during quiet Asian session. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7923, marginally above the opening level. Full Content FXStreet (Moscow) - NZD/USD is squeezed in a narrow 26-pip range limited by 0.7933 on the upside and 0.7909 on the downside during quiet Asian session. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7923, marginally above the opening level. NZD/USD closed above 0.7900 on daily basis after having touched 0.7957 high. Todays Asian session is very quiet as markets are focused on FEDs meeting which started Tuesday, with a a decision due later today. The FOMC meeting is not expected to bring any surprises, though volatility is warranted. Moreover, we have RBNZ meeting early in Asia on Thursday. This is anther risk event for kiwi that keeps traders at bay. From the technical point of view, the nearest resistance for NZD/USD comes at 0.7933 (Asian high), once it is broken the pair may continue the upside towards 0.7957 (Tuesdays high). The support is seen at 0.7900, it is followed by 0.7880. What are todays key NZD/USD levels Todays central pivot point can be found at 0.7921, with support below at 0.7882, 0.7843 and 0.7804, with resistance above at 0.7960, 0.7999 and 0.8038. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA bullish at 0.7915 and the daily 20EMA flat at 0.7922. Hourly RSI is bullish at 54. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 05:30:00 OPEN 0.7928 CLOSE 0.7932 HIGH 0.7934 LOW 0.7927 BID 0.7931 ASK 0.7932 PERCENT -0.0504 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bearish Strength -2 OBO Recommendation Neutral RBNZ: Tightening cycle to become conditional - Westpac Published On :2014-10-29 05:20:00 Market :Forex Flash Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes that in tomorrows RBNZ meeting, the OCR is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50, the pause duration to extend, and the resumption of the tightening cycle to become conditional. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes that in tomorrows RBNZ meeting, the OCR is expected to remain unchanged at 3.50, the pause duration to extend, and the resumption of the tightening cycle to become conditional. The main development since the RBNZs September MPS is the surprisingly low Q3 CPI outturn. At 1.0 yoy it was 0.3 lower than the RBNZ had forecast. The other notable negative developments have been the further declines in export commodity prices and the slightly slower pace of GDP growth, although these are offset by the lower exchange rate and higher migration. The net impact of all these developments is likely to be a longer pause duration compared to that implied in the September MPS. The resumption of the tightening cycle is now likely to be not until September 2015, rather than Q2 2015, and will be indicated by language such as: The current period of monitoring and assessment is likely to continue for some time. In addition, the unconditional tightening signal is likely to have some conditionality attached: While we expect some further policy tightening will be necessary, the timing and extent will depend on how inflation responds to economic and financial developments. The above characterisation of the narrative (note there are no forecasts published from this meeting) represents our central scenario to which we assign a 70 probability. The market has probably priced this in already, being 40bp below the RBNZs most recent projections at the Dec-16 point. The 2yr swap rate should thus not move much in response. The NZD/USD exchange rate, though, is vulnerable to a modest decline. Our dovish scenario, to which we assign a 20 probability, is defined by a removal of any hint of further tightening. The 2yr swap should fall by 10bp in response. Our hawkish scenario, to which we assign a 10 probability, is defined by a retention of Septembers policy paragraph. The 2yr swap should only rise by around 6bp in response, partly because the market would view such a statement with skepticism. OIS pricing currently implies around zero chance of a hike during the next six months, with the next hike priced for not until December 2015.. SP: Japan sales tax hike may be credit negative Published On :2014-10-29 04:32:00 Market :Indicators According to the rating agency Standard Poors, via Reuters, the planned Japan sales tax hike for next year - second in a row - may be credit negative if it harms economy. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - According to the rating agency Standard Poors, via Reuters, the planned Japan sales tax hike for next year - second in a row - may be credit negative if it harms economy. As Reuters notes, citing a senior official of SP: Japans plan to raise its sales tax for the second year in a row next year may not be positive for the countrys credit rating if it snuffs out any chance of economic recovery, Reuters adds, citing Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at the agency: If the government were to delay next years tax increase, it would still need to cut welfare spending and push through structural reforms to accelerate economic growth. At present, as Reuters informs, SP has an AA - rating on Japan, which is three notches below the top rating of AAA, with a negative outlook, implying that a downgrade is a possibility. BoJs Kuroda keeps familiar stance, further QQE Q1 or Q2 2015 Published On :2014-10-29 04:14:00 Market :Central Banks Yesterday, we saw BOJ Gov. Kuroda testifying at the Upper House Finance/Budget ommittee, with the Central Banker reiterating the same position on easing and the yen, that is, saying that for now there is no need to act on further easing and that weak yen is good as long as it reflects fundamentals. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - Yesterday, we saw BOJ Gov. Kuroda testifying at the Upper House Finance/Budget Committee, with the Central Banker reiterating the same position on both easing policies and the yen, by saying that for now there is no need to act on further easing and that weak yen is good as long as it reflects fundamentals. Kurodas stance should reinforce the view that the BOJ will not change its policy course at this weeks policy meeting, with chances for a move in December also quite slim, according to the latest Bloomberg survey, with only 9 of BOJ watchers expect an easing this week, and 19 now expect BOJ easing by year-end, Nomura reports. That said, the BoJs inflationary outlook on Friday will still be a critical piece of information that markets will follow closely in order to obtain further clues on the future prospects of QQE. At present, market consensus on the next Japans govt/BOJs game plan, appears to be for an official announcement on GPIF changes in asset allocation sometime in November, a supplementary budget between January and February, plan to increase wages in late Q1 2015, further accommodative policies (QQE) in late Q1/early Q2, while a decision to implement another increase in sales tax, if history serves as any indication, may drag on well into 2015 despite politicians assured the public that by Dec this year, a decision will be made. First arrow of Abenomics may now be weighing on economy - Nomura Published On :2014-10-29 03:45:00 Market :Forex Flash First arrow of Abenomics may now be weighing on economy, notes Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - First arrow of Abenomics may now be weighing on economy, notes Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute. There is the possibility that the first arrow of Abenomics, an attempt to lift inflation expectations with monetary easing, may now be having a negative impact on the economy. Fully 80.4 of respondents to the BOJ survey said prices were higher than they were a year ago, and of those 78.8 said this was a rather unfavorable development. In other words, nearly 60 of all people view the ongoing rise in prices negatively. These findings suggest that policies aimed at recklessly raising the inflation rate or lifting the consumption tax have the potential to break the back of the Japanese economy. These policies, therefore, should be approached with great caution. GBP/USD may be shaping up for a squeeze - TDS Published On :2014-10-29 03:17:00 Market :Forex Flash According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS, GBP/USD technical patterns look positive for a potential squeeze higher near term. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TDS, GBP/USD technical patterns look positive for a potential squeeze higher near term. The recent turn up in GBPUSD is catching a little more attention with price action looking potentially positive on the short-term charts. Firstly, Cable is testing three-month trend resistance off the July high at 1.6150 today (the 40-day MA lurks just above at 1.6184 versus todays high of 1.6183). Secondly, the rebound from the October low may be forming an inverse Head Shoulders reversal, the neckline of which (1.6157) todays push higher has also tested. The formation suggests upside potential of around 330bps on a break higherimplying scope to near 1.65 on a break out from current levels. We think long GBPUSD positions are worth considering in the event of a clear move through 1.6185 (above the 40-day MA, rather than the neckline trigger, in other words) over the next 24 hours (buy on a stop entry basis at 1.6205). A pop higher in Cable fits with the generally less constructive, near-term outlook for the USD we have outlined recently after the extended rally since mid-year But we would use a tight, trailing stop (1.6165 initially) as seasonal trends do turn more adverse for the GBP through early November and if the seasonal effet if small, it is consistent (GBPUSD has weakened 70 of the time in the month of November in the last 20 years). Market balanced to a dovish FOMC - TDS Published On :2014-10-29 02:56:00 Market :Forex Flash Analysts at TD Securities explained that this FOMC meeting should mark the end of the QE3 program. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that this FOMC meeting should mark the end of the QE3 program. However, with domestic economic growth momentum beginning to leak lower, and the medium term outlook for the recovery and inflation becoming less certain, we expect the statement to be tweaked sufficiently to reflect a more dovish bias towards the near term monetary policy stance. The risk, however, is that the statement fails to live up to the overly dovish tone that the market may be expecting. EUR/JPY testing space near key resistance 138.00 Published On :2014-10-29 02:38:00 Market :Foreign Exchange EUR/JPY is trading at 137.77, up 0.03 on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.82 and low at 137.65. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is trading at 137.77, up 0.03 on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.82 and low at 137.65. EUR/JPY sits steady on a well bid performance rallying from 137.00 up to current levels on a gradual and convincing move over the European and US session. The shares and stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic were bullish which weighed on the Japanese currency and that leaves us in reach of the October highs testing the space in the 138.00 zone. This is a daily resistance territory that gave way once in the past three months when the pair rallied up over timeframes to 141.25. EUR/JPY noteworthy levels Current price is 137.78, with resistance ahead at 137.82 (Daily High), 137.83 (Yesterdays High), 138.08 (Daily Classic R1), 138.34 (Weekly Classic R2) and 138.43 (Daily Classic R2). Next support to the downside can be found at 137.74 (Weekly High), 137.73 (Daily Open), 137.70 (Weekly Classic R1), 137.67 (Daily 100 SMA) and 137.65 (Daily Low). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 02:30:00 OPEN 137.77 CLOSE 137.76 HIGH 137.84 LOW 137.74 BID 137.75 ASK 137.76 PERCENT 0.01 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 2 OBO Recommendation Overbought GBP/USD trades bearishly into Asia - FXStreet Published On :2014-10-29 01:58:00 Market :Forex Flash Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained the conditions of the GBP/USD leading into the Asian session. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained the conditions of the GBP/USD leading into the Asian session. Having posted a daily high of 1.6182, the GBP/USD finally pulled back below the daily ascendant trend line coming from 1.7190, leaving a bitter taste on bulls mouth. The slow but steady slide over American hours, sees the pair entering Asian ones with a bearish short term tone, as per current candle opening below its 20 SMA and indicators about to cross their midlines to the downside with a strong bearish slope. In the 4 hours chart indicators also turned lower but remain well above their midlines, while 20 SMA now offers immediate intraday support at 1.6090. Furthermore in this last time frame, 200 EMA capped the upside around mentioned daily high quite significant in the longer run, as further declines will point for a return of the bearish trend. AUD/NZD needs to overcome 1.13 to enter new bullish phase Published On :2014-10-29 01:40:00 Market :Foreign Exchange UD is being paid at 1.1180 against its neighboring currency - NZD - with resistance and sellers layered above 1.12 still representing a tough opposition for emerging AUD buyers. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - AUD is being paid at 1.1180 against its neighboring currency with sellers layered above 1.12 still representing a tough opposition for emerging AUD buyers. In the current Asian session, the pair is unchanged from its NY close, with traders finding little incentives to increase order flow amid lack of relevant economic data. The only release of note today was an improved NZ business confidence reading, which had no impact in prices. The next key event to cause significant increase in volatility comes on Thursday, when the RBNZ will release its latest monetary policy decision, in which no updated forecasts will be included. According to RBS: Lower-than-expected inflation last week gives the RBNZ plenty of scope to maintain its neutral stance, which notes that a period of assessment on the policy rate is needed after the Bank increased the rate by 1.0 in 2014. AUD/NZD is established in a 4 cents range between 1.09 and 1.13, with the macro landscape having recently been supportive for the AUD as long-held NZD longs are reduced amid a reassessment of RBNZ rate hike expectations. Technically, a clean break of 1.13 is required to enter a new bullish phase, while on the downside, focus remains on the 1.10 round number ahead of 1.09, with the 100-day EMA having acted as formidable dynamic support on the last setbacks through Sept/Oct on both 1.09 and 1.10 levels. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 01:30:00 OPEN 1.1181 CLOSE 1.1185 HIGH 1.1187 LOW 1.1181 BID 1.1184 ASK 1.1186 PERCENT -0.0358 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral USD/JPY capped at R1 and struggles on 108 handle Published On :2014-10-29 01:26:00 Market :Foreign Exchange USD/JPY is trading at 108.11, down -0.04 on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.20 and low at 108.08. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - USD/JPY is trading at 108.11, down -0.04 on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.20 and low at 108.08. USD/JPY is losing the battle on the 108 handle with a slight penetration through and onto the 108.20 level and R1. The Yen has found a little support from the Industrial Production figures that came in at 0.6 y/y and 2.7 vs 2.2 expected for the month on month results. Meanwhile, Karen Jones, chief analysts at Commerzbank suggested that we should now see only tepid retracements into the 107.39/23 band ahead of a climb above 110.00. The market should remain well supported by cloud support circa 106.26/105.01 We target the 110.67 August 2008 high. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair is confined to the range set by Fibonacci levels, in between 107.60 and 108.20 that represents the 50 and the 61.8 retracements of the latest bearish run from 110.08/105.19. USD/JPY noteworthy levels Current price is 108.11, with resistance ahead at 108.26 (Daily Classic R1). Next support to the downside can be found at 108.03 (Hourly 20 EMA), 107.93 (Daily Classic PP), 107.86 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 107.69. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 01:15:00 OPEN 108.11 CLOSE 108.12 HIGH 108.15 LOW 108.08 BID 108.1 ASK 108.13 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 2 OBO Recommendation Neutral New Zealands business confidence lifted in October Published On :2014-10-29 01:19:00 Market :Indicators ANZ business confidence for October registered 26.5 vs 13.4 last, while ANZ activity outlook came at 37.8 vs 37.0 last. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ business confidence for October registered 26.5 vs 13.4 last, while ANZ activity outlook came at 37.8 vs 37.0 last. Official release - ANZ We put Septembers decline in confidence down to politics, and this month we say the same. Confidence is still well down from its February euphoria (a net 71 of firms were optimistic back then) but readings are still north of the long-run average. Excluding the bounce in headline business confidence, the remainder of the survey resembles a mouse treadling on the exercise wheel it looks pretty familiar. - Firms activity expectations were basically unchanged at 38. - Expected profitability dropped marginally (from 19 to 17). Thats well down from the peak of 45 in February, but solid. - Investment intentions eased from 20 to 16. - A net 19 of businesses expect to be hiring more staff over the year ahead thats down 2 points on the month prior, but okay. - Stripping out a mild seasonal element, firms own activity expectations, profit expectations and employment investment intentions lifted a smidgen. Life on the prairie for the average business may not be stellar but it looks solid. - Export intentions nudged up (22 to 25). - Sentiment in the residential construction arena was down, but was up in the commercial sector the levels still look reasonable. - Pricing intentions nudged higher. A net 24 of respondents expect to be raising prices over the year ahead BOJ easing expectations decline slightly - Nomura Published On :2014-10-29 01:15:00 Market :Forex Flash According to Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, while BOJ easing expectations remain low for this year, expected downgrades in the Japanese economy and inflation forecasts this Friday should sustain market expectations for BOJ easing into next year. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - According to Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, while BOJ easing expectations remain low for this year, expected downgrades in the Japanese economy and inflation forecasts this Friday should sustain market expectations for BOJ easing into next year. The BOJ is reported to be considering downgrading its growth and inflation forecasts at its meeting on Friday (Nikkei and Bloomberg) (unconfirmed). Nikkei says that the median forecast of FY2014 GDP growth among board members will be downgraded to around 0.6 from 1.0. As the economic slowdown in Q2, after the consumption tax hike, was much more severe than expected, and the recovery in Q3 has been weak, the downgrade will not be a surprise to the market. Rather, 0.6 growth forecast for FY2014 is likely to be regarded as optimistic, because the consensus forecast has already downgraded to 0.34. The article says the Bank is likely to keep its growth forecast into FY2015 and FY2016 largely unchanged. Any changes in inflation forecast will be more important for the FX market, and Bloomberg reports that the BOJ is considering changing the expression on near term inflation recovery. The Bank had previously stated in its outlook report that (inflation will) follow a rising trend again from the second half of this fiscal year. However, the article says now the BOJ is considering deleting the expression about the reacceleration trend from the second half of this fiscal year, as oil prices declined recently. As a result, the Bank is now considering lowering not only FY2014 but also FY2015 inflation forecasts, which have been more optimistic than market consensus. A downgrade in inflation forecasts and changes in expectations of near-term inflation recovery may not necessarily suggest the Bank is ready for a near term easing, but the changes, if they are made, would be regarded as dovish, in our view. Market expectations for near-term additional easing by the BOJ slightly declined further, according to Bloomberg. Only 9 of BOJ watchers expect an easing this week, and 19 now expect BOJ easing by year-end. The expected downgrades in economy and inflation forecasts this Friday will sustain market expectations for BOJ easing, which have been already scaled back significantly, and any dip in USD/JPY after the meeting will likely be small. New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence up to 26.5 in October from previous 13.4 Published On :2014-10-29 01:00:00 Market :Indicators Full Content The Federal Rserve is expected to retain key phrases at todays monetary policy meeting, notes the FX Strategy Team at RBS. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - The Federal Reserve is expected to retain key phrases at todays monetary policy meeting, notes the FX Strategy Team at RBS. With the QE taper extremely likely to be completed next week, as scheduled, the forward guidance phrase it will likely be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the Fed Funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends will need to change, at least slightly. We expect the considerable time language will be retained the FOMC can merely remove the words after the asset purchase program ends and maintain the same message. Debate over the need for the phrase highlighting a significant underutilization of labor resources will be notable as well we expect it to be retained as well. AUD/JPY up to daily resistance zone on weak JPY Published On :2014-10-29 00:36:00 Market :Foreign Exchange AUD/JPY is trading at 95.76, down -0.03 on the day, having posted a daily high at 95.82 and low at 95.67. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - AUD/JPY is trading at 95.76, down -0.03 on the day, having posted a daily high at 95.82 and low at 95.67. AUD/JPY was bid on the back of a good performance in stocks in the US and shares in European markets on the rise that was weakening the Japanese currency. The cross has topped just shy of the daily resistance around the 96.00 level but has confirmed the correction of the down tend from the 98.0 handles territory. We are now moving in on further domestic data releases from Japan in the form of the Industrial Production . and approaching showdown time in the FOMC . At the end of the week we will have the BoJ but before then we will have Employment data and Inflation numbers to deal with. AUD/JPY noteworthy levels Current price is 95.77, with resistance ahead at 95.78 (Daily 100 SMA) and 95.96 (R3). Next support to the downside can be found at 95.72 (Weekly Classic R1), 95.69 (Daily Classic R2), 95.67 (Daily Low), 95.52 (Hourly 20 EMA), 95.30 (Daily Classic R1), 95.00 the pivot and 94.62. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-29 00:30:00 OPEN 95.76 CLOSE 95.83 HIGH 95.85 LOW 95.75 BID 95.82 ASK 95.83 PERCENT -0.08 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral USD/CHF: Potential role reversal on the hourly - 2ndSkies Published On :2014-10-29 00:34:00 Market :Forex Flash Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies, is pointing out the potential for a role reversal setup in USD/CHF hourly chart, after the pair broke a key support area. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - Chris Capre, Founder at 2ndSkies, is pointing out the potential for a role reversal setup in USD/CHF hourly chart, after the pair broke a key support area. After forming a mild bounce off the key support at 9475, the pair slammed right through it in one hour. What is interesting is the price action after the break. Initially forming a bullish pin bar, the pair then reversed course and printed a bearish pin bar off the key support (now resistance). This may act as a role reversal setup so traders should watch for a potential trade. My only gripe with this is how the pair has printed 7 of 8 bull closes since the drop on the 1hr chart. This isnt what Id call typical for a corrective pullback, along with the wicks mostly on the downside. So lesser risk than usual is what Id advise should you short it. If we see aggressive selling from there, then 9400 would be under attack. A close back above here creates a potential false break scenario. Important USD-bullish secular shifts in train - ANZ Published On :2014-10-29 00:11:00 Market :Forex Flash ANZ offers their medium-term view on the USD, arguing that the USD is still likely to be one of the strongest currencies, with the bank adding that there are some important USD-bullish secular shifts in train. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ offers their medium-term view on the USD, arguing that the USD is still likely to be one of the strongest currencies, with the bank adding that there are some important USD-bullish secular shifts in train. From a medium-term perspective the main problem for risk assets remains the same: namely that both the risk and the reward continue to tilt against them. The FOMC still seems on track to gradually reduce liquidity over time, which is raising the funding costs for risk assets by making the USD more attractive and pushing front end yields in the US higher. And the ongoing structural adjustment in China and the poor growth profile for EM outside Asia is damaging the return potential for currencies in Asia and the commodity block. In this vein we continue to argue that the main US focus for currencies should be the front end of the bond curve, and not the long end as was the case last year. It has become increasingly clear that the long end of the US curve is influenced as much by global asset flows as it is by potential US monetary policy developments. The October fixed income flash crash accentuates this point. There are some broader signals from that event also. If the deepest and most liquid financial market can post price action like on 15 October, then it highlights why we are still so puzzled that so many seem confident that other far less liquid assets, with plenty of new tourism investors, will handle the shift to tighter global liquidity in better shape. In fact one might argue that the only economic trend not upset by the financial market ructions of the past 18 months is the improving economic trajectory of the US. In this vein, the fed funds futures are now only pricing one rate hike by the end of 2015. This well and truly seems to be on the skinny side, and will become an issue for currencies once the current consolidation period has passed. In addition, we continue to argue that there are some important USD-bullish secular shifts in train also. In particular, the trade balance has shown an improving trend over the past few years. In this sense the current US recovery is quite unusual. It is the first recovery since the late 1990s where a domestic US upswing has not been associated with a deteriorating US trade account. The US is not, in other words, exporting growth to the rest of the world in a way that we have been used to, but it is still acting to withdraw the liquidity to which the world has become addicted. South Korea Current Account Balance down to 5.2B in September from previous 7.6B Published On :2014-10-29 00:00:00 Market :Indicators Full Content Aussie: Rise and shine - FXStreet Published On :2014-10-28 23:56:00 Market :Forex Flash Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted and said that the Aussie finally woke up. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted and said that the AUD/USD finally woke up. Reaching 0.8881 against the greenback, and holding now well above the 0.8820 support as a new day starts. The latest slide may have to do partially with gold late slump, as the metal gave up most of its intraday gains in the latest hours. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a bullish tone as per the breakout of its latest range. Technically the 1 hour chart shows a positive tone with indicators now flat above their midlines and a strong bullish 20 SMA well below current price. In the 4 hours chart the picture is quite similar, with price above a flat 20 SMA and indicators now lacking strength in positive territory. GBP/JPY shying away from daily highs Published On :2014-10-28 23:51:00 Market :Foreign Exchange GBP/JPY is trading at 174.38, down -0.05 on the day, having posted a daily high at 174.55 and low at 174.37. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/JPY is trading at 174.38, down -0.05 on the day, having posted a daily high at 174.55 and low at 174.37. GBP/JPY has been lifted to monthly resistance here and highest levels for several weeks at 174.76 with Sterling rising with the tides as the greenback faced another bought of selling on the back of poor/mixed data releases in the early US session. However, it isnt much of a week directly for the pound although we do have consumer sentiment coming out, but the focus will remain around the BoJ, Japanese data and FOMC . We have already seen some decent fundamental developments for Japan with the retail sales that came in stronger than expected for the month of September that gave us 2.3 y/y and 2.7m/m and now we await the Industrial Production . Further in we will see the Employment data and Inflation numbers before we even get to the BoJ meeting on Friday. GBP/JPY noteworthy levels Current price is 174.40, with resistance ahead at 174.47 (Weekly High), 174.48, 174.75 (Daily Classic R2) and 174.76. Next support to the downside can be found at 174.28 (Hourly 20 EMA), 174.27 (Daily Classic R1), 173.83 (Daily Classic PP) and 173.70. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 23:45:00 OPEN 174.41 CLOSE 174.42 HIGH 174.43 LOW 174.39 BID 174.4 ASK 174.43 PERCENT -0.01 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral JPY: Still vulnerable but downside limited - JPMorgan Published On :2014-10-28 23:36:00 Market :Forex Flash JP Morgan FX Strategists are still expecting JPY to weaken due to its deteriorated fundamentals although they see the downside limited, thus they keep their target of 109 by year-end and 110 as of Q3 2015. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - JP Morgan FX Strategists are still expecting JPY to weaken due to its deteriorated fundamentals although they see the downside limited, thus they keep their target of 109 by year-end and 110 as of Q3 2015. The yen has been an outperformer versus most other currencies. Behind this move are a number of cross-currents:(1) lower oil prices that might support the yen through an improving trade balance (2) lower inflation that might undermine the yen by raising expectations of move BoJ easing (3) more aggressive risk-taking by GPIF that weakens the yen through capital outflows and (4) rising political uncertainty that threatens fiscal consolidation through postponement of a consumption tax hike to 10. On net, recent developments have little impact on our current USD/JPY call. We still believe that JPY will weaken due to its deteriorated fundamentals but downside will be limited. Thus, we remain comfortable with the current call (our target is 109 as of end-this year and 110 as of Q3 2015). However, it is fair to say that recent developments have increased uncertainties surrounding our baseline. NZD/USD closes above 0.79 driven by USD weakness Published On :2014-10-28 23:29:00 Market :Foreign Exchange NZD/USD found buying interest for a third day in a row, as another round of USD selling took place on Tuesday, this time being data driven after disappointing US durable goods orders, allowing the pair to close above the 0.79 handle / 20-day EMA. Full Content FXStreet (Bali) - NZD/USD found buying interest for a third day in a row, as another round of USD selling took place on Tuesday, this time being data driven after disappointing US durable goods orders, allowing the pair to close above the 0.79 handle / 20-day EMA. Going forward, and ahead of the FOMC today, and the RBNZ monetary policy announcement on Thursday, Asia will provide a light aperitive today, in the form of ANZ business confidence/activity outlook for October, unlikely to see any drastic price changes unless a major deviation with prior data seen. Technically, despite the 2c bounce off 0.77 support in late Sept, the NZD still remains one of the poorest performers among G10 currencies, and the recovery currently underway has to do more with broad-based USD weakness than NZDs own merits. If bulls can keep up the bullish momentum, 0.80 looks like a logical next target, while on the downside, 0.78 appears to be next key support ahead of 0.77. Note, however, that technicals will have little bearing on potential price movements today, with volatility subject to the FOMC outcome. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 23:15:00 OPEN 0.7921 CLOSE 0.7918 HIGH 0.7923 LOW 0.7916 BID 0.7917 ASK 0.7918 PERCENT 0.0379 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 4 OBO Recommendation Neutral EUR/JPY up on stocks yet again - FXStreet Published On :2014-10-28 23:01:00 Market :Forex Flash Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the Yen extended its early week decline on the back of another good day among stocks, with indexes edging higher both in Europe and the US. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the Yen extended its early week decline on the back of another good day among stocks, with indexes edging higher both in Europe and the US. Euro advanced favored a EUR/JPY jump up to current levels, stalling around a critical resistance: 100 DMA stands a couple pips above current price, alongside with the 50 retracement of the 141.21/134.13 slide. Having seen practically no retracements after reaching 137.79, risk has turned towards further gains. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows indicators turning flat in overbought territory, while 100 and 200 SMAs finally start to move, gaining some bullish slope well below current price. AUD/USD bears counting on a hawkish Yellen Published On :2014-10-28 22:35:00 Market :Foreign Exchange AUD/USD is trading at 0.8855 having posted a daily high at 0.8859 and low at 0.8851. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8855 having posted a daily high at 0.8859 and low at 0.8851. AUD/USD has been up to test the highest of this month business, just falling shirt of the October high of 0.8900. The pair has rallied a cent between Europe and the US, with most action to the upside coming from the durable goods orders that surprised negatively and gave the greenback bulls some resistance and puts the downside into question again. That said, we are not far off from the FOMC showdown and with a market not expecting any hawkishness, surprises there could well be a catalysts for a quick correction in the dollars recent bearishness. AUD/USD noteworthy levels With spot trading at 0.8855, we can see next resistance ahead at 0.8861 (Daily Classic R3), 0.8884 (Daily High), 0.8897 (Weekly Classic R2), 0.8960 (Weekly Classic R3) and 0.9164 (Daily 200 SMA). Support below can be found at 0.8844 (Weekly Classic R1), 0.8843 (Daily Classic R2), 0.8841 (Monthly High), 0.8834 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 0.8826 (Yesterdays High). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 22:30:00 OPEN 0.8855 CLOSE 0.8855 HIGH 0.8858 LOW 0.8854 BID 0.8854 ASK 0.8855 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral Session Recap: Volatility ahead of FOMC Key levels in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Published On :2014-10-28 22:16:00 Market :Foreign Exchange Usually, the day before a big event is a non-session with ranges and sideways movements in major investment instruments. However, Tuesday was a funny day with a good appetite for risk. Stocks rallied amid earnings while the Dollar was shaken by US economic data. Full Content FXStreet (San Francisco) - Usually, the day before a big event is a non-session with ranges and sideways movements in major investment instruments. However, Tuesday was a funny day with a good appetite for risk. Stocks rallied amid earnings while the Dollar was shaken by US economic data. At the beginning of the American session, a weaker than expected report of US durable goods orders sent the US dollar down against major rivals but half an hour later, an upbeat US consumer confidence gave some breath to the Greenback that was able to hold levels. EUR/USD closed positive for third day as the pair jumped to 1.2765 before returning to 1.2730 where it closed. According to Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet, a critical resistance stands now in the 1.2780/90 price zone where the pair stalled several times over this October, and will probably keep the upside limited until the news. GBP/USD also posted its third day of gains as the pair consolidated levels above 1.6100 but it remains below key 1.6200. the 1.6200 level also represents the 50 Fibonacci retracement of the Sept-Oct drop as well as the neckline to an inverted head-and-shoulder pattern, points out Matt Weller from Forex. Weller affirms that both the MACD and RSI have turned higher after bullish divergences in recent weeks, showing declining bearish momentum and hinting at a potential turn higher. Before concluding that a daily close above critical resistance at 1.6200, a more substantial bounce toward 1.6276 (the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement), 1.6385 (the 78.6 Fibo) or 1.6530 (the measured move target of the inverted HS pattern) may come into play next month. In related markets, US stocks rallied amid corporate earnings with the DJIA closing above the 17,000 level. Gold was shaken in between 1,235 and 1,222 before closing positive at 1,228. WTI oil traded sideways while remaining above the 81.00. Main headlines in the American session US: Durable Good Orders (Sep) dropped 1.3 Case Schiller Home Price data comes a touch weaker than estimates. Trends lower. United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 20 (October) vs 14 US Oct consumer confidence 94.5 vs 87.0 expected US Stocks rally amid earnings waiting for the Fed Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 22:15:00 OPEN 1.2733 CLOSE 1.2733 HIGH 1.2734 LOW 1.2733 BID 1.2733 ASK 1.2733 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral Sterling heading for a squeeze - TDS Published On :2014-10-28 22:00:00 Market :Forex Flash Analysts at TD Securities analysed the conditions surrounding the pound due to the positive GBP/USD chart developments that are attracting attention. Full Content FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities analysed the conditions surrounding the pound due to the positive GBP/USD chart developments that are attracting attention. Firstly, Cable is testing three-month trend resistance off the July high at 1.6150 today (the 40-day MA lurks just above at 1.6184 versus todays high of 1.6183). Secondly, the rebound from the October low may be forming an inverse Head Shoulders reversal, the neckline of which (1.6157) todays push higher has also tested GBP/USD gains need more supportive spreads to counter adverse seasonal trends in the next few weeks. Technical factors suggest a push higher may be a go with move. Greenback soft ahead of FOMC - FXStreet Published On :2014-10-28 21:55:00 Market :Foreign Exchange Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the dollar ended lower across the board. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the dollar ended lower across the board. Particularly hit against commodity currencies since early European session, with both CAD and AUD surging to fresh multi week highs. As for European ones, the early session was extremely quiet ahead of US data, which ended up being quite mixed: first strong reading saw Durable Goods Orders missing expectations by far printing a whopping -1.3 for September, and triggering a dollar sell off across the board. 1 hour later US consumer confidence soared to a seven year high of 94.5, yet market players decided it was enough: there was almost no reaction across the forex board to this latest news, except a mild advance in USD/JPY. All eyes turned now to the FED monetary policy decision upcoming Wednesday, expected to trim the last 15B of QE and keep the wording unchanged. EUR/USD resting up at the 2013 lows Published On :2014-10-28 21:50:00 Market :Foreign Exchange EUR/USD is trading at 1.2733, up 0.27 on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2766 and low at 1.2685. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is trading at 1.2733, up 0.27 on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2766 and low at 1.2685. EUR/USD has been up to test the territory where the pair has continued to fail in the month of October on a short lived spike through the 2013 lows at 1.2744, the area where the pair now oscillates. The key area if the bulls persist there after will be where the downtrend exists with a culmination of weekly R1 and the 455 DMA at 1.2800. There would need to be a significant catalyst to get there which might come from a very dovish FOMC and Yellen playing down hope of a rate hike while there is little chance that the FOMC will come with a very hawkish tone. EUR/USD noteworthy levels Current price is 1.2733, with resistance ahead at 1.2755 (Daily Classic R2), 1.2766 (Daily High), 1.2785 (Daily Classic R3), 1.2803 (Weekly Classic R1) and 1.2838 (Monthly High). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.2728 (Daily 20 SMA), 1.2726 (Daily Classic R1), 1.2724 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.2724 (Yesterdays High) and 1.2723 (Hourly 200 SMA). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 21:45:00 OPEN 1.2734 CLOSE 1.2734 HIGH 1.2734 LOW 1.2732 BID 1.2733 ASK 1.2734 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 3 OBO Recommendation Neutral US Stocks rally amid earnings waiting for the Fed Published On :2014-10-28 21:29:00 Market :Stocks, Oil amp Metals Wall Street rallied on Tuesday as investors welcomed upbeat earnings reports and good US consumer confidence report. The Dow Jones closed above the 17,000 while the Nasdaq rose for fourth day in a row. Full Content FXStreet (San Francisco) - Wall Street rallied on Tuesday as investors welcomed upbeat earnings reports and good US consumer confidence report. The Dow Jones closed above the 17,000 while the Nasdaq rose for fourth day in a row. Gold was shaken in between 1,235 and 1,222 before closing the day positive at 1,228. WTI oil traded sideways while remaining above the 81.00. The Dow Jones jumped 187.81 points or 1.12 to finish the day at 17,005.75 the SP 500 advanced 23.42 pts or 1.19 to close the session at 1,985.05 while the Nasdaq Composite added 78.36 pts or 1.75 to its index before closing at 4,564.29. After hours, Facebook published an upbeat quarterly reports as the social media giant reported Q3 EPS 0.43 Adj. vs. 0.40 estimated Q3 Revs. 3.20B vs. 3.12B expected. USD/JPY clinches to 108.00 Published On :2014-10-28 20:10:00 Market :Foreign Exchange The greenback is now back to the positive ground vs. the Japanese yen on Tuesday, with USD/JPY hovering over 108.00 the figure. Full Content FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now back to the positive ground vs. the Japanese yen on Tuesday, with USD/JPY hovering over 108.00 the figure. USD/JPY all eyes on the FOMC Spot managed well to retrace almost the whole drop to the 107.70 region post-Durable Goods, now treading water around the 108.00 handle as markets are drawing to a close. Moving towards Wednesdays Asian session, advanced Industrial Production figures in Japan are due, with consensus expecting a 2.2 gain during September. In the meantime, the FOMC meeting will take centre stage, with investors expecting the Fed to announce the end of the bond-buying programme started two years ago. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, It is possible that the mid-October rebound is no more than a consolidation of the 110/105 drop (potential bear flag signal in development). Look for renewed weakness in the USD below 107.25/35 in the next few days. USD/JPY levels to watch At the moment the pair is up 0.24 at 108.08 with the next hurdle at 108.38 (high Oct.27) followed by 108.74 (high Oct.8) and then 109.08 (76.4 of 110.09-105.20). On the downside, a break below 107.64 (Kijun Sen) would open the door to 107.61 (low Oct.27) and finally 107.39 (high Oct.20). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 20:00:00 OPEN 108.08 CLOSE 108.11 HIGH 108.13 LOW 108.08 BID 108.11 ASK 108.15 PERCENT -0.02 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 2 OBO Recommendation Neutral CAD and Keystone pipeline key amongst US midterm elections - BAML Published On :2014-10-28 19:56:00 Market :Forex Flash Ian Gordon, FX Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that the US midterm elections are a week away. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ian Gordon, FX Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that the US midterm elections are a week away. It is hard to tell, as markets have had other macro risks on their mind recently. Polls suggest the Republicans are likely to take over the Senate, giving them control of both Chambers of Congress while there is a 61 chance Republicans will take over the Senate according to a recent poll from Fivethirtyeight (see full report for footnote)1. Our economics team argues the election is likely to have a small impact on the economy, as we expect very few legislative breakthroughs to result even if the Republicans are successful in taking the Senate. President Barack Obama has two more years in office, so the US will still be divided, dampening hopes for an end to Congressional paralysis. However, prospects for the long-awaited Keystone pipeline would improve with a GOP victory. Bottom line: CAD would be supported short-term with Keystones passage, but we do not see it as a long-term game changer. Canadian producers have found alternative means of transport as Keystone has languished, relieving the once acute supply disruptions, and dampening the longer-run currency impact. USD/CAD unable to recover the 1.1200 level Published On :2014-10-28 19:48:00 Market :Foreign Exchange The USD/CADs rebound at 1.1165 was stopped at the 1.1195 area where the pair found new selling interest that sent the unit back to 1.1185. Full Content FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CADs rebound at 1.1165 was stopped at the 1.1195 area where the pair found new selling interest that sent the unit back to 1.1185. Earlier in the day, the USD/CAD completed a 90-pips decline from yesterdays maximum at 1.1250 to todays provisional lowest at 1.1165. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1191, down 0.50 on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1255 and low at 1.1165. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. If the pair extends rejection of 1.1195, it will find supports at 1.1165, 1.1150 and 1.1090. To the upside, resistances are at 1.1195, 1.1250 and 1.1290. Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 19:45:00 OPEN 1.1191 CLOSE 1.1192 HIGH 1.1194 LOW 1.1188 BID 1.1191 ASK 1.1192 PERCENT -0.0089 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bearish Strength -3 OBO Recommendation Neutral EUR expected to trend lower - Scotiabank Published On :2014-10-28 19:42:00 Market :Forex Flash Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained that EUR has climbed higher today but continues to lack conviction and commented on the European data. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained that EUR has climbed higher today but continues to lack conviction and commented on the European data. Data today was vaguely encouraging but not top tier. Germany released stronger than expected import prices, rising 0.3m/m Spain released an increase in mortgage lending and Italys business confidence improved. However the core release for the Eurozone this week is Fridays flash CPI estimate, expected to rise 0.4y/y on headline followed by next weeks ECB meeting. Yesterday the ECB disclosed that they had purchased 1.7bn of covered bonds, relatively close to expectations. We expect EUR to trend lower over time, closing the year at 1.2501. EUR/USD shortterm technicals: mixedtechnical studies lack conviction with several of them pointing in opposite directions A close above 1.2715 would open up a test to 1.2820. EUR/USD flat lining around 1.2750 Published On :2014-10-28 19:17:00 Market :Foreign Exchange EUR/USD keeps consolidating in the nid-1.2700s after posting intraday peaks in the boundaries of 1.2770. Full Content FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD keeps consolidating in the nid-1.2700s after posting intraday peaks in the boundaries of 1.2770. EUR/USD focus on the Fed The pair is clinging to the upper end of the intraday range on Tuesday around 1.2740/50, attempting the usual consolidative pattern pre-FOMC meeting. The demand for the European currency got extra oxygen after US Durable Goods Orders disappointed investors during September, despite the improved reading from the Consumer Confidence. According to Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, technical studies lack conviction with several of them pointing in opposite directions. We see this as further evidence that EUR is in the midst of a period of range trading with near-term support at Thursdays low of 1.2614 and resistance at the October 21 low of 1.2715, a close above which would open up a test to 1.2820. EUR/USD levels to consider At the moment the pair is advancing 0.35 at 1.2743 with the next hurdle at 1.2784 (hourly high Oct.21) ahead of 1.2841 (high Oct.21) and then 1.2845 (high Oct.16). On the flip side, a break below 1.2665 (low Oct.27) would open the door to 1.2656 (61.8 of 1.2614-1.2723) and finally 1.2635 (low Oct.24). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 19:15:00 OPEN 1.2744 CLOSE 1.2744 HIGH 1.2746 LOW 1.2743 BID 1.2744 ASK 1.2744 PERCENT 0 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 2 OBO Recommendation Neutral AUD/USD downside risks deteriorating Published On :2014-10-28 19:13:00 Market :Foreign Exchange AUD/USD is trading at 0.8859, up 0.64 on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8884 and low at 0.8795. Full Content FXStreet (Barcelona) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8859, up 0.64 on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8884 and low at 0.8795. AUD/USD continues to bring in bullish scores on the board with yet a further advancement on the 0.88 handle. The pair spiked along with other majors vs the dollar on the back of the weak durable goods numbers to 0.8880 resistance and the aforementioned high and settled back on the consumer confidence results that were positive. With such advancements it put the downside into question for the time being, until at least we hear from Yellen who obviously will note that a rate rise has to come at some point next year, but may retain a dovish tone so not to rattle the markets. AUD/USD noteworthy levels With spot trading at 0.8859, we can see next resistance ahead at 0.8861 (Daily Classic R3), 0.8884 (Daily High), 0.8897 (Weekly Classic R2), 0.8960 (Weekly Classic R3) and 0.9164 (Daily 200 SMA). Support below can be found at 0.8844 (Weekly Classic R1), 0.8843 (Daily Classic R2), 0.8841 (Monthly High), 0.8834 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 0.8826 (Yesterdays High). Technical Studies : Updated At - 2014-10-28 19:00:00 OPEN 0.8858 CLOSE 0.8856 HIGH 0.8861 LOW 0.8854 BID 0.8855 ASK 0.8856 PERCENT 0.0226 Pivot Points S1 0 Pivot Points S2 0 Pivot Points S3 0 Pivot Points R1 0 Pivot Points R2 0 Pivot Points R3 0 Recommendation Bullish Strength 2 OBO Recommendation Neutral United States 2-Year Note Auction fell from previous 0.589 to 0.425 Published On :2014-10-28 18:48:00 Market :Indicators Full Content